Dollar's Dazzle Undiminished

(RTTNews) - The Dollar's rally continued during the week ended November 22 lifting the 6-currency Dollar Index to a 2-year high.

The U.S. Dollar gained against the euro, the British Pound, the Japanese yen, the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc. It however declined against the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. The U.S. Dollar gained amidst fears that the new government's economic and tax policies could stoke inflation and reduce the headroom available to the Federal Reserve to ease rates.

The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. Dollar's strength against a basket of 6 currencies gained 0.81 percent during the week ended November 22, recording the eighth straight week of gains. The Index had added 1.61 percent during the week ended November 15 and 0.69 percent during the week ended November 8.

Data released during the week showed the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly falling to 213 thousand during the period ending November 16 versus 219 thousand in the previous week and market expectations of 220 thousand. The strength of the labor market despite the aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve portended a slower pace of monetary easing than expected, boosting the dollar.

The stronger-than-expected PMI numbers also bolstered the greenback. The S&P Global Services PMI which was expected to edge up to 55.2 from 55.0 in the previous month jumped to 57.0. The Manufacturing PMI edged up as expected to 48.8 from 48.5 in the previous month.

The euro slipped against the U.S. Dollar during the week ended November 22 amidst fears of a trade war with the U.S. that could weaken the Euro Zone economy. The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.0417 on November 22, from 1.0541 a week earlier, recording a decrease of 1.2 percent as markets fear the euro's fall to parity with the dollar. The pair ranged between the high of 1.0609 recorded on Wednesday and the low of 1.0333 touched on Friday.

Data released during the week had shown inflation in the region increasing along expected lines. Data also showed an unexpected decline in PMI readings that added pressure on the ECB to ease rates.

The U.S. Dollar surged against the British pound also during the week ended November 22. The pound's weakness came amidst a larger-than-expected decline in retail sales that offset the sterling's strength derived from the higher-than-expected inflation in the U.K. The GBP/USD pair which had closed at 1.2617 on November 15, dropped to 1.2531 by November 22. The pair ranged between Wednesday's high of 1.2714 and Friday's low of 1.2484. Data released on Wednesday showed annual inflation in the U.K. rising to 2.3 percent in October from 1.7 percent in the previous month and disappointing markets that had expected a level of 2.2 percent.

Data released on Friday showed retail sales declining 0.7 percent in October. Markets had expected a decline of 0.3 percent versus the uptick of 0.1 percent in the previous month. The Australian Dollar however strengthened against the U.S. Dollar during the week ended November 22, amidst minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia revealing the central bank's focus on maintaining restrictive interest rate framework. The board members acknowledging that there was no "immediate need" to alter the cash rate supported the Australian Dollar. The AUD/USD pair which had closed at 0.6461 on November 15 dropped to a low of 0.6446 on Monday and thereafter climbed to a high of 0.6544 on Wednesday. The pair finally closed at 0.6501 on Friday, recording weekly gains of 0.62 percent.

The past week also saw the Japanese yen extend losses against the U.S. Dollar amidst uncertainty about Bank of Japan's rate hike plans. The USD/JPY pair which was at 154.34 on November 15 climbed 0.26 percent to 154.74 in a week's time. The pair had touched a low of 153.28 on Tuesday and a high of 155.88 on Wednesday. The yen's weakness came amidst inflation in Japan declining to 2.3 percent in October from 2.5 percent in the previous month. The lowest reading since January cast doubts on the headroom available to Bank of Japan to hike rates aggressively.

Currency market movements over the course of the new week are bound to be swayed by the deluge of economic data from across the globe. Minutes of the FOMC due on Tuesday, the PCE-based inflation data due from the U.S. on Wednesday as well as the monthly inflation updates due from Australia, Germany, France and Euro Area and the revised GDP data from the U.S. would undoubtedly dictate the trajectory of major currencies.

At the onset of the new week, the dollar has retreated from two-year highs after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump nominated hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for the post of Treasury Secretary. The 6-currency Dollar index is currently at 107.08.

The EUR/USD pair has jumped to 1.0478 whereas the GBP /USD pair has firmed up to 1.2562. Ahead of the CPI update, the AUD/USD pair has strengthened to 0.6503. The USD/JPY pair has in the meanwhile decreased to 154.42.

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